Rulings: Sampling, Extrapolations Should Include Underpayments, Unpaid Claims

In recent developments that could potentially affect overpayment findings, an administrative law judge (ALJ) invalidated a Medicare auditor’s statistical sampling method because it removed underpayments, and the chief statistician for a Medicare administrative contractor (MAC) came to a similar conclusion in an unrelated appeal. If their point of view catches on, extrapolated overpayment amounts may be smaller in some cases, experts say.

The ALJ agreed with the appellant, a durable medical equipment (DME) supplier, that failing to include unpaid and underpaid service lines violated the Medicare Program Integrity Manual,[1] according to a June 18 decision. While it sounds technical, the ruling sends a message that Medicare auditors should consider both underpayments and unpaid claims in the extraction and extrapolation of audit samples, said attorney Stephen Bittinger, who represented the appellant. “This is a very important opinion,” said Bittinger, with K&L Gates in Charleston, South Carolina. Leaving out unpaid claims, which have a dollar value of zero, and underpaid claims could “significantly skew” the audit at the starting gate. Other ALJs recently have come to the same conclusion in hearings, he noted.

Statistician/auditor Bruce Truitt, a former faculty member of the Medicaid Integrity Institute in Columbia, South Carolina, said he has been wondering for decades when a case like this would be won. “In a nutshell, all overpayments are improper payments, but not all improper payments are overpayments. Some are underpayments,” he explained. “If you don’t include underpayments, you never get to the correct value of the claim. As a result, the true dollar value, and conceivably the claim count of the universe, is not properly determined.”

Truitt said when auditors start out, they “always maintain the single, unique and complete dollar value of the claim. If I have a claim with three line-items on it, one of which is an unpaid zero dollar value item, one of which is a negative dollar adjustment and the other is a positive dollar amount, leaving out the negative dollar adjustment will affect the total dollar value of the claim. And, if I sample at the line-item level, leaving out the zero dollar unpaid item will affect the total size of the sampling frame from which I pull the sample.”

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